With real estate prices on the rise, and no end in sight for the gains the market is seeing, the Government of Canada has stepped in to quell the growth. The Government’s position is akin to a contingency planner, attempting to mitigate the risk of a large scale correction in real estate values if interest rates rise and homeowners are unable to make their mortgage payments.
The Trudeau government is introducing a “stress test” for all insured mortgages, whether fixed or variable rate. Insured mortgages are those that are subject to premiums as a result of a homebuyer putting less than 20% of the purchase price of a home down. These mortgages are also referred to as “high-ratio” or “high-leverage”, and would be the ones most impacted by shocks to interest rates.
The changes came with a mere two-week window prior to their implementation. It has left many in the mortgage industry scrambling for details and to project the changes’ impact on house prices and their ability to lend. See the infographic above for more details, but lenders are seeing a 20-30% reduction in the amount of money they are able to lend on high ratio mortgages.
Many experts forecast these restrictions to inflict downward pressure on real estate prices; while others believe the impact will be relatively moderate, if not negligible. However, a 20-30% decrease in affordability is no small change, and it is hard to fathom these changes having zero impact across the board.
For more details, see below, written by Bill Curry of the Globe and Mail on the day of the announcement.
“Four major changes to Canada’s housing rules”
Bill Curry, Globe and Mail. October 3rd, 2016.
The Liberal government has announced sweeping changes aimed at ensuring Canadians aren’t taking on bigger mortgages than they can afford in an era of historically low interest rates. The changes are also meant to address concerns related to foreign buyers who buy and flip Canadian homes. Below is a breakdown of the four major changes Finance Minister Bill Morneau announced Monday.
The current rules
Buyers with a down payment of at least 5 per cent of the purchase price but less than 20 per cent must be backed by mortgage insurance. This protects the lender in the event that the home buyer defaults. These loans are known as “high loan-to-value” or “high ratio” mortgages.
In situations in which the buyer has 20 per cent or more for a down payment, the lender or borrower could obtain “low-ratio” insurance that covers 100 per cent of the loan in the event of a default.
Mortgage insurance in Canada is backed by the federal government through the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. Insurance is sold by the CMHC and two private insurers, Genworth Financial Mortgage Insurance Company Canada and Canada Guaranty Mortgage Insurance Company. The federal government backs the insurance offered by the two private-sector firms, subject to a 10-per-cent deductible.
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The change
Expanding a mortgage rate stress test to all insured mortgages.
What it is
As of Oct. 17, a stress test used for approving high-ratio mortgages will be applied to all new insured mortgages – including those where the buyer has more than 20 per cent for a down payment. The stress test is aimed at assuring the lender that the home buyer could still afford the mortgage if interest rates were to rise. The home buyer would need to qualify for a loan at the negotiated rate in the mortgage contract, but also at the Bank of Canada’s five-year fixed posted mortgage rate, which is an average of the posted rates of the big six banks in Canada. This rate is usually higher than what buyers can negotiate. As of Sept. 28, the posted rate was 4.64 per cent.
Other aspects of the stress test require that the home buyer will be spending no more than 39 per cent of income on home-carrying costs like mortgage payments, heat and taxes. Another measure called total debt service includes all other debt payments and the TDS ratio must not exceed 44 per cent.
Who it affects
This measure affects home buyers who have at least 20 per cent for a down payment but are seeking a mortgage that may stretch them too thin if interest rates were to rise. It also affects lenders seeking to buy government-backed insurance for low-ratio mortgages.
Why
The government is responding to concerns that sharp rises in house prices in cities like Toronto and Vancouver could increase the risk of defaults in the future should mortgage rates rise.
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The change
As of Nov. 30, the government will impose new restrictions on when it will provide insurance for low-ratio mortgages.
What it is
The new rules restrict insurance for these types of mortgages based on new criteria, including that the amortization period must be 25 years or less, the purchase price is less than $1-million, the buyer has a credit score of 600 and the property will be owner-occupied.
Who it affects
This measure appears to be aimed at lowering the government’s exposure to residential mortgages for properties worth $1-million or more, a category of the market that has increased sharply in recent years in Vancouver and Toronto.
Why
Vancouver and Toronto are the two real estate markets that are of most concern for policy makers at all levels of government. These measures appear to be targeted at those markets.
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The change
New reporting rules for the primary residence capital gains exemption.
What it is
Currently, any financial gain from selling your primary residence is tax-free and does not have to be reported as income. As of this tax year, the capital gains tax is still waived, but the sale of the primary residence must be reported at tax time to the Canada Revenue Agency.
Who it affects
Everyone who sells their primary residence will have a new obligation to report the sale to the CRA, however the change is aimed at preventing foreign buyers who buy and sell homes from claiming a primary residence tax exemption for which they are not entitled.
Why
While officials say more data are needed, Ottawa is responding to extensive anecdotal evidence and media reports showing foreign investors are flipping homes in Canada and falsely claiming the primary residence exemption.
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The change
The government is launching consultations on lender risk sharing.
What it is
Currently, the federal government is on the hook to cover the cost of 100 per cent of an insured mortgage in the event of a default. The federal government says this is “unique” internationally and that it will be releasing a public consultation paper shortly on a proposal to have lenders, such as banks, take on some of that risk. The Department of Finance Canada acknowledges this would be “a significant structural change to Canada’s housing finance system.”
Who it affects
Mortgage lenders, such as banks, would have to take on added risk. This could potentially lead to higher mortgage rates for home buyers.
Why
The federal government wants to limit its financial obligations in the event of widespread mortgage defaults. It also wants to encourage prudent lending practices.